Macroeconomic Determinants of Living Standards in Mauritania: Evidence from an ARDL Approach (1991–2020)

Abstract

This study aims to identify the macroeconomic determinants of living standards in Mauritania over the period 1991–2020, using per capita final household consumption as an indicator of living standards. The analysis is based on an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model applied to annual data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators. The results show that in the long term, education and trade openness have a positive and statistically significant effect on living standards, while unemployment and gross fixed capital formation have a negative and significant effect. In contrast, inflation does not appear to be a significant determinant. In the short term, the significant negative error correction coefficient (−1.17) reflects a rapid adjustment towards long-term equilibrium and highlights the high sensitivity of the Mauritanian economy to external shocks. Diagnostic tests confirm the robustness and stability of the model. These results underline the importance of structural policies that promote education, job creation, productive diversification and improved investment quality in order to foster a sustainable improvement in household living standards.